Minnesota United vs St. Louis City SC odds & probabilities

MLS · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UK

Minnesota United

21:30

06:23:00

St. Louis City SC

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Minnesota United42%

Draw24%

St. Louis City SC34%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 46 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.54

Minnesota United

1.49

St. Louis City SC

Most likely scores

1–111%
2–19%
1–28%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Minnesota United to Win42%37%2.73

Draw24%25%4.02

St. Louis City SC to Win34%39%2.60

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Minnesota United or Draw66%62%1.63

St. Louis City SC or Draw58%63%1.58

Minnesota United or St. Louis City SC to Win76%75%1.33

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%92%1.09

Under 0.5 Goals4%9%11.78

Over 1.5 Goals83%83%1.21

Under 1.5 Goals17%18%5.70

Over 2.5 Goals64%64%1.57

Under 2.5 Goals36%36%2.76

Over 3.5 Goals41%44%2.29

Under 3.5 Goals59%56%1.78

Over 4.5 Goals23%26%3.80

Under 4.5 Goals77%74%1.36

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes65%66%1.52

Both Teams to Score - No36%34%2.91

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Minnesota United to Score First49%47%2.12

No Goal5%5%21.38

St. Louis City SC to Score First47%48%2.08

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Minnesota United Leads at Half-time31%––

Half-time Draw40%––

St. Louis City SC Leads at Half-time29%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 46 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Minnesota United vs St. Louis City SC match analysis

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Minnesota United face St. Louis City SC on 17 October 2026 (MLS). The MatchIQ model rates a Minnesota United win at 42%, a draw at 24% and a St. Louis City SC win at 34%, which makes Minnesota United the favourite at 42%. The margin-free average of 46 bookmakers is 37%, 25% and 39% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.54 for Minnesota United and 1.49 for St. Louis City SC, 3.03 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 83%, over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.