San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC odds & probabilities

MLS · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 03:30 UK

San Jose Earthquakes

03:30

12:24:00

Nashville SC

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

San Jose Earthquakes38%

Draw24%

Nashville SC38%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 45 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.44

San Jose Earthquakes

1.59

Nashville SC

Most likely scores

1–111%
1–29%
2–18%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

San Jose Earthquakes to Win38%27%3.73

Draw24%25%4.05

Nashville SC to Win38%49%2.06

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw62%52%1.94

Nashville SC or Draw63%73%1.37

San Jose Earthquakes or Nashville SC to Win76%75%1.33

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%92%1.09

Under 0.5 Goals4%8%11.89

Over 1.5 Goals83%81%1.23

Under 1.5 Goals17%19%5.35

Over 2.5 Goals64%62%1.62

Under 2.5 Goals36%39%2.60

Over 3.5 Goals41%42%2.41

Under 3.5 Goals59%58%1.71

Over 4.5 Goals23%25%4.00

Under 4.5 Goals77%75%1.33

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes64%64%1.57

Both Teams to Score - No36%37%2.74

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

San Jose Earthquakes to Score First45%41%2.46

No Goal5%5%18.91

Nashville SC to Score First50%54%1.85

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

San Jose Earthquakes Leads at Half-time28%––

Half-time Draw40%––

Nashville SC Leads at Half-time32%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 45 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

San Jose Earthquakes vs Nashville SC match analysis

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San Jose Earthquakes face Nashville SC on 17 October 2026 (MLS). The MatchIQ model rates a San Jose Earthquakes win at 38%, a draw at 24% and a Nashville SC win at 38%, which makes San Jose Earthquakes only a slight favourite in a balanced match at 38%. The margin-free average of 45 bookmakers is 27%, 25% and 49% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.44 for San Jose Earthquakes and 1.59 for Nashville SC, 3.03 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 83%, over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 64%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.