Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund odds & probabilities

Bundesliga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 14:30 UK

Union Berlin

In play

Borussia Dortmund

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

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Match result odds

Union Berlin21%

Draw24%

Borussia Dortmund55%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.01

Union Berlin

1.93

Borussia Dortmund

Most likely scores

1–110%
0–110%
1–210%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Union Berlin to Win21%20%5.09

Draw24%22%4.55

Borussia Dortmund to Win55%58%1.71

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Union Berlin or Draw46%42%2.40

Borussia Dortmund or Draw79%80%1.24

Union Berlin or Borussia Dortmund to Win76%78%1.28

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals96%94%1.07

Under 0.5 Goals4%6%15.90

Over 1.5 Goals86%82%1.22

Under 1.5 Goals15%18%5.62

Over 2.5 Goals65%63%1.59

Under 2.5 Goals35%37%2.70

Over 3.5 Goals45%42%2.36

Under 3.5 Goals55%58%1.74

Over 4.5 Goals23%25%3.96

Under 4.5 Goals77%75%1.34

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes64%61%1.64

Both Teams to Score - No36%39%2.57

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Union Berlin to Score First33%34%2.96

No Goal5%5%18.65

Borussia Dortmund to Score First62%61%1.64

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Union Berlin Leads at Half-time18%––

Half-time Draw39%––

Borussia Dortmund Leads at Half-time43%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund match analysis

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Union Berlin face Borussia Dortmund on 17 October 2026 (Bundesliga). The MatchIQ model rates a Union Berlin win at 21%, a draw at 24% and a Borussia Dortmund win at 55%, which makes Borussia Dortmund a clear favourite at 55%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 20%, 22% and 58% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.01 for Union Berlin and 1.93 for Borussia Dortmund, 2.94 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 86%, over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 64%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.