Valencia vs Athletic Club odds & probabilities

La Liga · Sat, 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UK

Valencia

20:00

04:57:00

Athletic Club

No pick on this match

The model priced this match, but no outcome made our confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities below are for information only; they are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

What do you say? Vote

Match result odds

Valencia43%

Draw28%

Athletic Club30%

Bars show our model; the white tick is the average of 49 bookmakers.

Expected goals

1.25

Valencia

1.16

Athletic Club

Most likely scores

1–113%
1–011%
0–110%

Every market

Every probability the model calculated for this match. Rows marked in green are inside our confidence band and are our picks; the rest are for information only, are not recommendations and do not count towards our record.

Match resultModelMarket≈Odds

Valencia to Win43%29%3.50

Draw28%29%3.50

Athletic Club to Win30%43%2.33

Double chanceModelMarket≈Odds

Valencia or Draw70%57%1.75

Athletic Club or Draw58%71%1.40

Valencia or Athletic Club to Win72%71%1.40

Total goalsModelMarket≈Odds

Over 0.5 Goals94%89%1.12

Under 0.5 Goals6%11%9.11

Over 1.5 Goals76%71%1.41

Under 1.5 Goals24%29%3.44

Over 2.5 Goals52%47%2.14

Under 2.5 Goals48%53%1.88

Over 3.5 Goals27%26%3.78

Under 3.5 Goals73%74%1.36

Over 4.5 Goals15%13%7.55

Under 4.5 Goals85%87%1.15

Both teams to scoreModelMarket≈Odds

Both Teams to Score - Yes59%52%1.92

Both Teams to Score - No41%48%2.08

First goalModelMarket≈Odds

Valencia to Score First47%40%2.53

No Goal9%10%10.51

Athletic Club to Score First44%51%1.96

Half-timeModelMarket≈Odds

Valencia Leads at Half-time29%––

Half-time Draw46%––

Athletic Club Leads at Half-time26%––

Market: the margin-free average probability across 49 bookmakers. ≈Odds are derived from it; real bookmaker prices are slightly shorter.

Valencia vs Athletic Club match analysis

Download image

Valencia face Athletic Club on 17 October 2026 (La Liga). The MatchIQ model rates a Valencia win at 43%, a draw at 28% and a Athletic Club win at 30%, which makes Valencia the favourite at 43%. The margin-free average of 49 bookmakers is 29%, 29% and 43% respectively.

Expected goals are 1.25 for Valencia and 1.16 for Athletic Club, 2.41 in total. That puts over 1.5 goals at 76%, over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%).

This match falls outside the model's confidence band, so we did not publish a pick. The probabilities above are for information only and do not count towards our record. What do you think? Vote in the Tribün.